Sichuan-Tibet Railway Work To Start, Impact May Far Surpass Qinghai-Tibet Railway

October 30, 2009

The Chinese government has announced the start of construction of a railroad that will link Lhasa, the capital of the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR), with Chengdu, the capital of densely populated Sichuan province. Commission analysis shows that the potential scale of demographic, economic, and environmental impact that the Sichuan-Tibet railway could have on the TAR and other Tibetan autonomous areas of China may far surpass the impact of the Qinghai-Tibet railway, which began operation in 2006. See the Commission's Special Topic Paper: Tibet 2008-2009 for more information on the Sichuan-Tibet railway.

The Chinese government has announced the start of construction of a railroad that will link Lhasa city, the capital of the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR), with Chengdu city, the capital of Sichuan province. Congressional-Executive Commission on China analysis shows that, based on comparisons of population and economic data, the potential scale of demographic, economic, and environmental impact that the Sichuan-Tibet railway could have on Tibetan autonomous areas in China could far surpass the impact of the Qinghai-Tibet railway, which began operation in July 2006 after a five-year construction period. Reports in China’s state-run media on August 31 (Xinhua, reprinted in China Tibet Online) and September 1, 2009 (China Daily), stated that work would begin in September on the Sichuan-Tibet railway. On September 2, however, Xinhua reported that unidentified Ministry of Railways (MOR) officials refuted the China Daily report that work on the railway would start in September, and that a construction timetable had not yet been established. The September 2 article did not report that MOR officials challenged any of the other details that the previous reports disclosed about the railway.

Table 1 below provides data showing that the Sichuan-Tibet railway will link the TAR to a Sichuan province population that is 17 times larger than the Qinghai province population that the Qinghai-Tibet railway linked to the TAR, based on official Chinese census data for 2000. Table 2 (column 2) below provides data showing that the Sichuan-Tibet railway will link the TAR to a Sichuan provincial economy that includes nearly 23 times more industrial enterprises that generate at least 5 million yuan in revenue from principal business than the Qinghai provincial economy that the Qinghai-Tibet railway linked to the TAR, according to China Statistical Yearbook 2008 data available on the National Bureau of Statistics of China Web site.

A direct comparison between TAR and Sichuan province population and economic data reveals a far greater disparity than a comparison between the TAR and Qinghai province shows. In 2000, Sichuan had more than 31 times the population of the TAR, according to official census data (Table 1), and approximately 107 times as many industrial enterprises that generated at least 5 million yuan from principal business, according to China Statistical Yearbook 2008 data (Table 2).

Table 1: Comparison of Provincial and Municipal-Level Populations Linked Directly by the Qinghai-Tibet Railway or the Planned Sichuan-Tibet Railway

Provincial-Level Area

Municipal-Level Area

Population (2000 Census)

Tibet Autonomous Region

 

2,616,329

Qinghai province

 

4,822,963

Sichuan province

 

82,348,296

 

Tibet Autonomous Region

Lhasa municipality, TAR

474,499

Qinghai province

Xining municipality, Qinghai province

1,849,713

Sichuan province

Chengdu municipality, Sichuan province

11,108,534

Source: Tabulation on Nationalities of 2000 Population Census of China, Department of Population, Social Science, and Technology Statistics, National Bureau of Statistics, and Department of Economic Development, State Ethnic Affairs Commission (Beijing: Ethnic Publishing House, September 2003), Table 10-1.

The difference between the size and makeup of the industrial economies in Sichuan province and the TAR could prove to be of even greater significance than the difference in the size of population in shaping the Sichuan-Tibet railway's impact on the TAR and other Tibetan autonomous areas. An official Chinese media report on August 31, 2009, stated that the railway "will boost economic growth along its way such as the development of mineral and tourist resources" and "open China's gateway to south Asia for bilateral economic and trade cooperation." If the railway functions as planned, it will facilitate swift, efficient transport of passengers, manufactured goods, and raw or semi-processed natural resources between the TAR―China's bottom-ranking industrial economy―and Sichuan's robust economy. [See Table 2 below for information on industrial indicators and national ranking. See Special Topic Paper: Tibet 2008-2009 for information on the railway's potential to promote the expansion and acceleration of Chinese government exploitation of Tibetan forestry resources.]

Table 2 below provides China Statistical Yearbook 2008 data on the industrial business economy in Sichuan and Qinghai provinces and in the TAR, and indicates for each type of data the ranking among China’s 31 provincial-level administrative areas. The table compares data from three of the yearbook's tables: the number of industrial enterprises in a provincial-level area with revenue over 5 million yuan from principal business (Table 13-4); the number of state-owned and state-holding industrial enterprises (Table 13-8); and the number of private industrial enterprises (Table 13-12). Data in the tables show that the TAR ranks last (31st) in each measure of industrial productivity, and Qinghai ranks between 28th and 30th. Data on Sichuan province, in comparison, shows strength―especially in the private industrial enterprise sector (Table 13-12). Sichuan's "gross industrial output value" and revenue earned from principal business both ranked 8th in the nation. China Statistical Yearbook 2008 in "Explanatory Notes on Main Statistical Indicators," defined "gross industrial output value" as "the total volume of final industrial products produced and industrial services provided during a given period. It reflects the total achievements and overall scale of industrial production during a given period."

Table 2: Comparison of Provincial-Level Economies Linked Directly by the Qinghai-Tibet Railway or the Planned Sichuan-Tibet Railway

.

Table 13-4, Main Indicators of Industrial Enterprises Above Designated Size by Region (Yuan expressed in 100 million)

Table 13-4 Rank (of 31)

Table 13-8, Main Indicators of State-owned and State-holding Industrial Enterprises by Region (Yuan expressed in 100 million)

Table 13-8 Rank (of 31)

Table 13-12, Main Indicators of Private Industrial Enterprises by Region (Yuan expressed in 100 million)

Table 13-12 Rank (of 31)

Sichuan province

 

Number of enterprises

10,709

10

878

7

5,672

11

Gross Ind. Output Val.

11,047.04

9

3,849.12

14

3,117.72

8

Total assets

11,690.21

11

6,325.71

11

1,684.51

10

Rev. from principal bus.

10,611.52

10

3,926.09

15

2,899.17

8

 

Qinghai province

 

Number of enterprises

471

30

138

28

161

29

Gross Ind. Output Val.

822.72

29

610.67

28

101.49

29

Total assets

1,645.94

28

1,321.99

28

147.19

29

Rev. from principal bus.

785.91

30

587.23

28

86.06

29

 

Tibet Autonomous Region

 

Number of enterprises

100

31

53

31

15

31

Gross Ind. Output Val.

41.36

31

18.06

31

6.67

31

Total assets

172.18

31

125.24

31

14.38

31

Rev. from principal bus.

36.73

31

16.31

31

6.23

31

Source: China Statistical Yearbook 2008, National Bureau of Statistics (Online), Tables 13-4, 13-8, 13-12.

Passengers departing from Chengdu will complete the 1,629 kilometer journey to Lhasa in only eight hours on an electric railway capable of operating at speeds above 200 kilometers per hour, according to the August 31 Xinhua report (reprinted in China Tibet Online) and the September 1 China Daily report. The eight-hour travel time between Chengdu and Lhasa, however, appears to allow no time for stops or for sub-maximum speeds while traveling through mountainous terrain. The train would complete the 1,629 kilometer journey in eight hours and nine minutes only if it maintained an average speed of 200 kilometers per hour for the entire journey. [See Special Topic Paper: Tibet 2008-2009 for information on the railway's route and principal stops.]

For information on the impact of Chinese government development policies on the Tibetan culture and heritage, see the Commission's Special Topic Paper: Tibet 2008-2009; Section V―Tibet of the CECC 2009 Annual Report; Section V―Tibet of the CECC 2008 Annual Report; Section IV―Tibet: Special Focus for 2007, in the 2007 Annual Report; Section VIII―Tibet, in the 2006 Annual Report; and Section VI―Tibet, in the 2005 Annual Report.