Chinese Communist Party Announces Revision to Population Planning Policy

December 16, 2013

In mid-November 2013, Chinese state media announced a proposed revision to the nation’s population planning policy as part of a larger package of reforms resulting from the Third Plenary Session of the 18th Chinese Communist Party Central Committee. The proposed population planning-related change provides a new exception to the current one-child rule, allowing couples to bear a second child if one of the parents is an only child. It remains unclear when eligible couples will be permitted to begin applying for a second child, as local authorities must first amend applicable local regulations. Central authorities continue to reiterate that the basic nationwide population planning policy will remain in place, reaffirming the government’s control over citizens’ reproductive decisions for the foreseeable future.

Proposed Revision and Projected Impact

On November 15, 2013, China’s state-run media agency Xinhua released an official version of the reform package that came out of the 18th Party Central Committee’s Third Plenary Session, held on November 9–12, 2013.[1] The reform package, titled the “Decision on Major Issues Concerning Comprehensively Deepening Reforms” (hereinafter “Decision”), lays out 60 directives for reform, covering a wide range of economic, legal, and social issues.[2] Under item 46 of the Decision, Party officials proposed a new exception to China’s population planning policy:

Continue with the basic national population planning policy, begin to implement a policy allowing couples in which one parent is an only child to bear a second child, adjust and perfect the birth policy step by step, promote the long-term balanced development of the population.

The proposed change represents only a slight relaxation, adding couples in which one parent is an only child to the category of families permitted to bear a second child. Rural couples, ethnic minority couples, and couples in which both parents are only children were among those already permitted under previous exceptions to bear a second child.[3] Experts predict that the impact of this most recent policy revision will especially be felt in urban areas.[4] One Chinese population policy expert estimates that the change will make 15 to 20 million more couples across China eligible to increase the size of their families.[5] Estimates for the additional number of births that could result from this change range from 1 to 3 million per year.[6] Several reports have noted the potential economic impact that such a sudden increase in births could have, and the stock market has already begun to show investors’ hope for growth in baby-related companies, such as those producing formula and strollers and those building medical facilities.[7] Reports have also noted, however, that not all couples would necessarily be willing to expand their families even if given the option.[8] According to a survey released by the National Health and Family Planning Commission (NHFPC) in October, of the couples that would become eligible under the proposed revision, only 50 to 60 percent were willing to bear a second child.[9] A separate survey conducted on November 18 on China’s most popular microblogging site, Sina Weibo, found that, of 5,000 Internet users polled, 52 percent said they would not want to have a second child due to the “economic pressure” involved.[10] As for the demographic challenges that precipitated the population policy change, authorities pointed in particular to China’s diminishing workforce, aging society, and sex ratio imbalance.[11] However, officials and demographers project that, since the government plans to continue controlling and restricting population growth, the impact of this policy revision on China’s demographic challenges will be gradual and may not be evident until the end of the century.[12]

Scope of Policy Revision Limited, Critics Call for Complete Policy Cancellation

Chinese officials have emphasized the limited scope of the recent population planning policy revision, while international critics continued to call for full policy cancellation. In a November 16 question and answer session with reporters, Deputy Director of the NHFPC, Wang Pei’an, stated: “Adjusting and perfecting birth control policies is not tantamount to relaxing family planning work.” Further, he reiterated that “family planning, as a basic national policy, must be maintained over the long term and the work of family planning shall be carried out continuously without any slackening. … Those who practice family planning conscientiously will be rewarded and supported, and those who give birth in violation of the law will be dealt with in accordance with the law and in accordance with regulations.”[13] International observers have criticized the limited reach of the benefits of the policy change, instead calling for full policy cancellation and an end to coercive family planning enforcement and control over families’ reproductive decisions.[14]  A group of scholars from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences issued an open letter advocating for policy cancellation in July 2012,[15] and a November 17, 2013, China Daily report quoted a scholar from the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences stating that, “The ultimate goal should be eliminating [family planning] limits imposed by the government, leaving the decision to the families themselves.”[16]

Policy Change Implementation Timeline

Amidst the media coverage[17] surrounding the announcement of the population planning policy revision, authorities have warned that the change will not go into effect immediately. When speaking with reporters, Wang Pei’an stated that couples who become eligible to have a second child under this new national rule cannot begin the process of applying for a birth permit until the provincial-level region where their household registration permit (hukou) is registered has amended applicable local regulations or until one of their local people’s congresses has passed special provisions implementing the policy change.[18] According to Wang, “Each provincial-level jurisdiction will determine [its own] specific timeline based on local conditions. However, the time lag between each locality’s launch of implementation efforts should not be too long.”[19] Beijing News reported the responses of several provincial-level areas in a November 18 article, stating that while officials in certain provinces like Guangdong and Jiangsu have said they are still waiting to receive official documents from the central government before making any changes, Shanghai municipality has stated that it will begin making preparations for an increase in births, and Beijing municipality anticipates that revision of its population planning regulation will be included in next year’s local people’s congress amendments.[20] According to one Chinese population studies expert quoted in the Beijing News article, China’s large municipalities and some provinces in the northeast are likely to lead the way in implementing the revision, and that almost half of China’s provinces will implement it in 2014, with the rest having implemented it by the end of the 12th Five-Year Plan period (2015).[21]

For background information on China’s population planning policies, including the demographic consequences of the policies as well as documentation of citizens’ growing calls for policy reform in recent years, see Section II—Population Planning in the CECC 2012 and 2013 Annual Reports.

For more information on the March 2013 merge of the National Population and Family Planning Commission and Ministry of Health into the new National Health and Family Planning Commission, which involved the transfer of authority for population research and policymaking to the National Development and Reform Commission, see Section II—Population Planning—Institutional Developments in the CECC 2013 Annual Report, 99–100.



[1] “China To Ease One-Child Policy,” Xinhua, 15 November 13. (https://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2013-11/15/c_132891920.htm)

[2] “Authorized Release: Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party Decision on Major Issues Concerning Comprehensively Deepening Reforms” [Shouquan fabu: zhonggong zhongyang guanyu quanmian shenhua gaige ruogan zhongda wenti de jueding], Xinhua, 15 November 13. (https://news.xinhuanet.com/politics/2013-11/15/c_118164235.htm) See also, Christopher K. Johnson, Center for Strategic and International Studies, “China Announces Sweeping Reform Agenda at Plenum,” 15 November 13. (https://csis.org/publication/china-announces-sweeping-reform-agenda-plenum)   

[3] Gu Baochang et al., “China’s Local and National Fertility Policies at the End of the Twentieth Century,” Population and Development Review, Vol. 33, No. 1, Table 1 (2007); Tian Yuan and Zheng Songbo, “All 31 Provinces in China Have Launched Two-Child Policy for Families in Which Both Parents Are Only Children” [Quanguo 31 shengfen jun yi fangkai shuangdu jiating sheng ertai zhengce], International Online, reprinted in NetEase, 26 November 11. (https://news.163.com/11/1126/05/7JOV27M00001124J.html) “From One-Child to Two-Child Policy,” CNC World, 25 January 12. (https://www.cncworld.tv/news/v_show/21567_From_one-child_to_two-child_policy.shtml) See also CECC, 2012 Annual Report, 10 October 12, 93–94.

[4] Wei Gu, “China’s Coming Baby Boomlet Will Deliver a Boost,” Wall Street Journal, 22 November 13.  (https://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303653004579211310267946676?cb=logged0.2566123581245701) Shan Juan, “Wait a Minute, Baby,” China Daily, 17 November 13. (https://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2013-11/17/content_17110560.htm)

[5] Dai Lili, “‘Single Child’ Households Can Have Second Child” [“Dandu” jiating fankai sheng er tai], Beijing Evening News, reprinted in Beijing Daily, 16 November 13. (https://www.bjd.com.cn/10zt/201311/16/t20131116_5322230.html)

[6] Wei Gu, “China’s Coming Baby Boomlet Will Deliver a Boost,” Wall Street Journal, 22 November 13. (https://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303653004579211310267946676?cb=logged0.2566123581245701)

[7] Ibid. Wang Zhuoqiong, “Policy Shift Gives Birth to Investor Optimism,” China Daily, 20 November 13. (https://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2013-11/20/content_17117776.htm) Alice Woodhouse and Yimou Lee, “China’s Easing of One-Child Policy Lifts Baby-Related Stocks,” Reuters, 17 November 13. (https://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/18/us-hongkong-babyshares-idUSBRE9AH01R20131118)

[8] Liz Carter, “For Cash-Strapped Chinese Parents, Two Babies Are Too Many,” Foreign Policy, Passport (blog), 20 November 13. (https://blog.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2013/11/20/for_cash_strapped_chinese_parents_two_babies_are_too_many)  Daniel Ren, “Shanghai Parents React Coolly to Relaxation of One-Child Policy,” South China Morning Post, 23 November 13. (https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1363256/shanghai-parents-react-coolly-relaxation-one-child-policy)

[9] Liz Carter, “For Cash-Strapped Chinese Parents, Two Babies Are Too Many,” Foreign Policy, Passport (blog), 20 November 13. (https://blog.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2013/11/20/for_cash_strapped_chinese_parents_two_babies_are_too_many) Dai Lili, “‘Single Child’ Households Can Have Second Child” [“Dandu” jiating fankai sheng er tai], Beijing Evening News, reprinted in Beijing Daily, 16 November 13. (https://www.bjd.com.cn/10zt/201311/16/t20131116_5322230.html)

[10] Liz Carter, “For Cash-Strapped Chinese Parents, Two Babies Are Too Many,” Foreign Policy, Passport (blog), 20 November 13. (https://blog.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2013/11/20/for_cash_strapped_chinese_parents_two_babies_are_too_many)

[11] National Health and Family Planning Commission, “National Health and Family Planning Commission Deputy Director Wang Pei’an Answers Reporters’ Questions About Maintaining the Basic National Family Planning Policy and Launching the Implementation of the Two-Child Policy for Single Only-Child Couples” [Guojia weisheng jisheng wei fu zhuren wang peian jiu jianchi jihua shengyu jiben guoce qidong shishi dandu liang hai zhengce da jizhe wen], 16 November 13. (https://www.nhfpc.gov.cn/xcs/s3574/201311/cc3f1bc9dd24488ab9ef1b08e93e3a76.shtml)

[12] Shan Juan, “Wait a Minute, Baby,” China Daily, 17 November 13. (https://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2013-11/17/content_17110560.htm) Zhuang Pinghui, “Relaxing One-Child Policy Will Create Near-Term Baby Boom But Real Benefits Will Take Years to See,” South China Morning Post, 19 November 13. (https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/1359802/relaxing-one-child-policy-will-create-near-term-baby-boom-real-benefits) “One-Child Changes Key to Balanced Population,” Xinhua, 17 November 13. (https://news.xinhuanet.com/english/indepth/2013-11/17/c_132895095.htm)

[13] National Health and Family Planning Commission, “National Health and Family Planning Commission Deputy Director Wang Pei’an Answers Reporters’ Questions About Maintaining the Basic National Family Planning Policy and Launching the Implementation of the Two-Child Policy for Single Only-Child Couples” [Guojia weisheng jisheng wei fu zhuren wang peian jiu jianchi jihua shengyu jiben guoce qidong shishi dandu liang hai zhengce da jizhe wen], 16 November 13. (https://www.nhfpc.gov.cn/xcs/s3574/201311/cc3f1bc9dd24488ab9ef1b08e93e3a76.shtml)

[14] See, e.g., Wang Feng, “Bringing an End to a Senseless Policy: China’s ‘One-Child’ Rule Should Be Scrapped,” New York Times, 19 November 13. (https://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/20/opinion/chinas-one-child-rule-should-be-scrapped.html?_r=1&) Rep. Chris Smith, “No Amount of ‘Easing’ Will Fix China’s Brutal Population Control Policy,” LifeNews, 17 November 13. (https://www.lifenews.com/2013/11/17/no-amount-of-easing-will-fix-chinas-brutal-population-control-policy/) Simon Denyer and William Wan, “In Reform Package, China Relaxes One-Child Policy, Abolishes Prison Labor Camps,” Washington Post, 15 November 13. (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/china-relaxes-one-child-policy-abolishes-prison-labor-camps/2013/11/15/a3f3f476-4df7-11e3-be6b-d3d28122e6d4_story_1.html) “Women’s Rights Organization Says ‘Single Only-Child Couples Can Bear a Second Child’ Does Not Loosen Family Planning Policy” [Nuquan zuzhi cheng “dandu ertai” bingfei fangsong jisheng zhengce], Voice of America, 19 November 13. (https://www.voachinese.com/content/hk-china-birth-policy-20131119/1792943.html)

[15] Josh Chin, “Chinese Scholars Call for Revision of One-Child Policy,” Wall Street Journal, 6 July 12. (https://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303962304577509062660508548) Shan Juan, “Wait a Minute, Baby,” China Daily, 17 November 13. (https://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2013-11/17/content_17110560.htm)

[16] Shan Juan, “Wait a Minute, Baby,” China Daily, 17 November 13. (https://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2013-11/17/content_17110560.htm)

[17] “One-Child Changes Key to Balanced Population,” Xinhua, 17 November 13. (https://news.xinhuanet.com/english/indepth/2013-11/17/c_132895095.htm) Simon Denyer and William Wan, “In Reform Package, China Relaxes One-Child Policy, Abolishes Prison Labor Camps,” Washington Post, 15 November 13. (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/china-relaxes-one-child-policy-abolishes-prison-labor-camps/2013/11/15/a3f3f476-4df7-11e3-be6b-d3d28122e6d4_story_1.html) Dai Lili, “‘Single Child’ Households Can Have Second Child” [“Dandu” jiating fankai sheng er tai], Beijing Evening News, reprinted in Beijing Daily, 16 November 13. (https://www.bjd.com.cn/10zt/201311/16/t20131116_5322230.html) Chris Buckley, “China Plans to Abolish Labor Camps and Ease One-Child Policy,” New York Times, 15 November 13. (https://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/16/world/asia/china-to-loosen-its-one-child-policy.html?_r=1&)

[18] National Health and Family Planning Commission, “National Health and Family Planning Commission Deputy Director Wang Pei’an Answers Reporters’ Questions About Maintaining the Basic National Family Planning Policy and Launching the Implementation of the Two Child Policy for Single Only Child Couples” [Guojia weisheng jisheng wei fu zhuren wang peian jiu jianchi jihua shengyu jiben guoce qidong shishi dandu liang hai zhengce da jizhe wen], 16 November 13. (https://www.nhfpc.gov.cn/xcs/s3574/201311/cc3f1bc9dd24488ab9ef1b08e93e3a76.shtml)

[19] Ibid.

[20] Wei Mingyan, “Beijing Makes Preparations for ‘Single Only-Child Couples Can Bear a Second Child’; Only Waiting To Amend Regulations” [Beijing “dandu ertai” zhunbei jiuxu zhi dai xiufa], Beijing News, reprinted in Xinhua, 18 November 13. (https://news.xinhuanet.com/health/2013-11/18/c_125716992.htm)  

[21] Ibid.