Thawing Permafrost May Threaten Qinghai-Tibet Railroad in 10 Years

March 2, 2006

Thawing permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau could threaten the safe operation of the Qinghai-Tibet railway in as little as 10 years, according to a series of statements by Chinese officials and experts reported by the Chinese news media. In December 2004, a China Daily article described the railway as the "centerpiece of China's ongoing 'develop the west program'." (See the Office of the Leading Group for Western Region Development of the State Council Web site for more information on the Great Western Development program.) Government investment in the railroad totaled about 33 billion yuan, according to an October 15, 2005, China Daily report, and the project will "attract tourists, traders, and ethnic Chinese settlers" to the region.

Thawing permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau could threaten the safe operation of the Qinghai-Tibet railway in as little as 10 years, according to a series of statements by Chinese officials and experts reported by the Chinese news media. In December 2004, a China Daily article described the railway as the "centerpiece of China's ongoing 'develop the west program'." (See the Office of the Leading Group for Western Region Development of the State Council Web site for more information on the Great Western Development program.) Government investment in the railroad totaled about 33 billion yuan, according to an October 15, 2005, China Daily report, and the project will "attract tourists, traders, and ethnic Chinese settlers" to the region.

A June 2005 China Daily report appears to be the first alert in the Chinese news media that rising temperatures on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau may eventually threaten the operation of the railway. Luo Yong, Deputy Director of the National Climate Center, warned, "By 2050, safe operation of the Qinghai-Tibet railway will be affected if temperatures keep rising steadily as observed over the past decades." Luo also said that China has had "18 consecutive warm winters," beginning in 1986, and explained that the plateau's winter and summer temperatures may rise as much as 3.4 degrees C (about 6 degrees F) by 2050. A temperature rise of that magnitude would be enough to cause frozen ground to melt away and endanger the railway.

In August 2005, Xinhua reported that Deputy Director General La Youyu of the railroad project headquarters said, "Frozen earth is vulnerable to climate change, which will thaw in summer and distend the railway base in winter." Some 550 kilometers of track (about 300 miles) runs on frozen earth, which "poses a major challenge to the railway construction," according to Deputy Director General La. The railway's designers incorporated technologies that include roadbed ventilation in frozen areas, slope protection, and heat preservation to avoid possible dangers, according to the August report.

Professor Wu Ziwang, a senior expert at the Chinese Academy of Sciences frozen soil engineering laboratory, said, "Due to the melting permafrost, I am worried that after 10 years the railroad will be unsafe," according to a January 22 report (in Chinese) in the Beijing News. Worldwide climate change is a force that no amount of human force can defy, and the effects of melting permafrost are already present, the report said. In a February 5 Xinhua article, Professor Wu warned, "Fast thawing of frozen soil in the plateau might greatly increase the instability of the ground, causing more grave geological problems in the frozen soil areas where major projects such as highways or railways run through." The changes could threaten the railway in a decade, Wu reiterated.

In summary, a comparison of statements in the Chinese news media from June 2005 to February 2006 shows that estimates of the time remaining before thawing permafrost may threaten the railway's safe operation has decreased from 45 years to 10 years. Xinhua reported in December 2005 that the railroad would begin commercial passenger transportation in July 2006, six months earlier than had been expected. Chinese authorities have not explained the reason for moving up the start of commercial passenger transportation, or said whether or not concern about a shorter operational lifespan for the railway was a factor in the decision.

See Section VI - Tibet, Culture, Development, and Demography, of the CECC 2005 Annual Report for more information on the Qinghai-Tibet railway and related issues.